The cybernetic world model of Jay Wright Forrester, the founder
of system dynamics, published in 1971, attempts to predict the
future growth of humanity. Population, natural resources,
environmental pollution, agricultural, and capital investment
represent the five levels that interact through complex feedback
loops in order to fully describe global human growth and quality
of life. For example, the population is regulated by both birth
and death rates, and both rates in turn interact directly and
indirectly with all other system parameters, including
themselves, through feedback loops that are interleaved with
each other.
The model can be simulated and shows that our exponential growth
cannot be sustained in this way and that in all scenarios a
collapse of humanity in the 21st century can only be prevented
by immediate action (1971). All constants were chosen so that
the simulation from 1900 to 1970 corresponds to reality. The
model served as the basis for the more complex world model
world3, which was the object of the book The Limits of Growth
(Club of Rome) published one year later. Just like the original
from 1971, it is possible to run through potential scenarios and
future predictions with the help of the modifiers.